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    Statistical presentation

    Contact info

    Short Term Statistics, Business Statistics
    Simon B. Halifax
    +45 39 17 30 88

    sbh@dst.dk

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    Business Cycle Tracer

    The Business Cycle Tracer is plotted in a scatter graph. Y-values depict indicator level. X-values depict changes in indicator level month over month. Along the curve is traced the development month by month.

    The collection of data for these statistics has not been affected by COVID-19.

    Data description

    Contrary to a traditional graphical representation of the economic cycle on a timeline the data in a business cycle have been traced in a system of coordinates defined by the four economic stages; increase above trend, decrease above trend, decrease below trend and increase below trend. The four stages are also called; boom, downswing, recession and upswing, but these terms are normally used in a wider connection including more indicators e.g. BNP and unemployment.

    The visual course enables one to compare a current economic cycle with earlier economic cycles, in regard to how fast the change occurs and the size of the fluctuations compared to underlying trends. The course is subject to a certain degree of uncertainty especially when looking at the latest month’s development, which is continuously revised, but overall, the results are sturdy.

    The economic cycle is a graphical presentation of the market trend development created by a method similar to what is used by the EU commission (DG ECFIN). The interactive presentation tool has been provided by Statistics Netherlands.

    Classification system

    The industries in the survey are defined by DB07 , which is the Danish industrial classification system similar to the international NACE rev. 2 system.

    Sector coverage

    Based on Business Tendency Survey.

    Statistical concepts and definitions

    Business Cycle: The economy, e.g. measured in GDP, varies over time. The movements can be decomposed into a Trend (T) component, a Cyclical (C) component, a Seasonal component (S) and a Irregular component (I). By various mathematical filter methods the Cyclical component can be extracted. The Economic Cycle or Business Cycle cycle is a wave through upswing (expansion) and downswing (contraction) levels of the economic activity.

    Statistical unit

    The units in the survey are enterprises defined by legal unit, which is identified by "CVR-number" from the Central Business Register.

    Statistical population

    Sectors which are covered by Business Tendency Surveys. This is Manufacturing, Construction, Services and Retail Trade, which constitutes the major part of the businesses. Excluded are Agriculture, fishing, mining, as well as energy and water supply.

    Reference area

    Denmark.

    Time coverage

    Launched October 2013 with time series from 1998 and onwards.

    Base period

    Not relevant for these statistics.

    Unit of measure

    Market trend value.

    Reference period

    Business Cycle Tracer is a graphic tool to analyze the business tendency based on confidence indicators for Manufacturing industries, Construction industry, Services and Retail trade - please refer to documentation for those statistics.

    Frequency of dissemination

    Monthly update at homepage.

    Legal acts and other agreements

    Based on Business Tendency Survey.

    Cost and burden

    Based on Business Tendency Survey.

    Comment

    For more information on the subject page Business Cycles.

    Statistical processing