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Accuracy and reliability

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Research, Technology and Culture, Business Statistics
Søren Østerballe

srb@dst.dk

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The importance of cultural and creative industries in the national economy

The statistics are based on sources with uncertainties, such as weights from the General Enterprise Statistics and trade in goods and services, as well as assumptions made in the construction of national accounts and input-output tables. Preliminary versions of the most recent reference years and significant economic changes, such as COVID-19, contribute to additional uncertainty. The input-output table and model assumptions result in lower precision compared to directly observed data.

Overall accuracy

The statistics describing the importance of the cultural and creative industries in the national economy are based on the Danish national accounts. In connection with the main revision of the national accounts in 2024, carried out in all EU countries, the Danish national accounts have been thoroughly reviewed and assessed. An ongoing assessment of the reliability of the national accounts data is maintained by reconciling the national accounts at a very detailed level, and the central variable GDP is sought to be compiled from both the production, use, and income sides. The input-output model used in the statistics regarding the importance of the cultural and creative industries in the national economy may further be affected by the unreliability of the assumptions made during the construction of the table.

The compilation of statistics on the economic activities in the cultural and creative industries within a national accounting framework involves a number of assumptions, averaging considerations, and model calculations, meaning that the quality of the statistics is not as high as for statistics with a more direct link to observed data.

There is some uncertainty related to the sources used as weights, as well as the assumptions made in the preparation of the national accounts and input-output tables. However, the conceptually consistent and uniform processing of sources over time helps reduce uncertainty in the national accounts figures. In particular, the consolidation of primary sources into a unified system, means that errors are often revealed, which do not affect the final national accounts or input-output tables.

No uncertainty calculations are available.

The two most recent reference years are based on preliminary versions of the 69 Industry classification in the Danish National Accounts, which means the uncertainty here is higher, than in the final versions based on the full 117 Industry classification in the Danish National Accounts. In addition, the periods of 2021 and 2022 are preliminary versions, and they are also influenced by significant economic changes brought by COVID-19, making the reference years subject to increased uncertainty.

There may also be uncertainty related to the mapping of 6-digit activity codes which is necessary for the statistics, as the estimates for turnover and employment from The General Enterprise Statistics (GF), and imports and exports from foreign trade in goods and services, do not necessarily provide a complete picture of the cultural and creative activities share of the National Accounts' 117 activity codes. Due to missing data from foreign trade in goods and services, the weights for mapping industries for the reference years 2014 and 2015 are based on foreign trade in goods and services data from 2016. Similarly, the weights for mapping the preliminary version for the reference year 2022 are based on foreign trade in goods and services data from 2021, as the final version of the foreign trade in goods and services data has not yet been published.

The cultural and creative industries have speciel tax and fee conditions, such as 0 per cent VAT on the sale of daily newspapers and online news. Since the weighting of production for these industries is based on turnovers from companies from the General Enterprise Statistics (GF), this may result in, that some industries could be underestimated if turnover data are derived from VAT returns. Additionally, the cultural industries receives support from both public and private funds. This means that some industries might be underestimated. In the calculation, this has been taken into account, as the most affected cultural industries, such as libraries, are included with both market and non-market activities.

Sampling error

Not relevant for these statistics.

Non-sampling error

One central assumption is necessary to move from product balances to input-output tables. This is the assumption that, regardless of the final use of a product, it will be delivered in the same relative proportion between industry-distributed Danish production and imports. By introducing this one, yet necessary assumption, the calculation moves away from actual statistics that can be observed in the real economy. The assumption will inevitably result in certain cells in the tables being overestimated and others underestimated, compared to what they would be if it were possible to directly measure the economic transactions that the cells represent.

Quality management

Statistics Denmark follows the recommendations on organisation and management of quality given in the Code of Practice for European Statistics (CoP) and the implementation guidelines given in the Quality Assurance Framework of the European Statistical System (QAF). A Working Group on Quality and a central quality assurance function have been established to continuously carry through control of products and processes.

Quality assurance

Statistics Denmark follows the principles in the Code of Practice for European Statistics (CoP) and uses the Quality Assurance Framework of the European Statistical System (QAF) for the implementation of the principles. This involves continuous decentralized and central control of products and processes based on documentation following international standards. The central quality assurance function reports to the Working Group on Quality. Reports include suggestions for improvement that are assessed, decided and subsequently implemented.

Quality assessment

The statistics regarding the importance of cultural and creative industries in the national economy are based on input-output tables, which present the key components of the final national accounts in tabular form, using a minimal amount of assumptions and calculations. Therefore, the quality of the input-output tables largely coincides with the quality of the final Danish national accounts, which, in international comparison, are considered to be of reasonably high quality.

The compilation of statistics on the economic activities in the cultural and creative industries within a national accounting framework involves a number of assumptions, averaging considerations, and model calculations, meaning that the quality of the statistics is not as high as for statistics with a more direct link to observed data.

To determine the share of the underlying 6-digit activity codes, from the Danish Industrial Classifi­cation 2007 relating to the cultural and creative industries, in the national accounts' 117 activity codes, The General Enterprise Statistics (GF) is used, where turnover are applied as weights for production and Gross Value Added. The sources for the turnover data are respectively data collection from larger companies, data from the annual report (XBRL), and tax data. There may be cases where VAT revenue from Purchases and sales by enterprises or imputation is used to indicate the turnover of individual companies. Similarly, the full-time employees (FTE) are also drawn from The General Enterprise Statistics (GF) and used as weights to calculate the number of employees and full-time workers in the cultural and creative industries. The source of the FTE data in the The General Enterprise Statistics (GF) is the frozen annual versions in the Business Statistical Register (ESR), which records business employment based on income data from Denmark's eIncome Register. Overall, the quality associated with the variables used as weights from The General Enterprise Statistics (GF) is considered to be high, as the data sources for revenue and FTE have high reliability. In some cases, there may be errors in the classification of individual units by activity codes, which is continuously quality-checked in Denmark's Business Statistics Register. However, these minor uncertainties have limited impact at an aggregated level.

For import and export, corresponding weights are formed based on data from foreign trade in goods and services, with reference made to the respective documentation of these statistics regarding uncertainty and the overall quality assessment of the imports and exports values of goods and services: International Trade in Goods and International Trade in Services.

There are no exact estimated figures available for the uncertainty of the statistics.

Data revision - policy

Statistics Denmark revises published figures in accordance with the Revision Policy for Statistics Denmark. The common procedures and principles of the Revision Policy are for some statistics supplemented by a specific revision practice.

Data revision practice

Both final and preliminary figures are published in the statistics. The preliminary figures will be continuously revised alongside the publication of the final national accounts figures. Additionally, adjustments may occur in connection with main revisions as well as extraordinary revisions of the national accounts.